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FC Tokyo vs Ceres — AFC Champions League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
1/28/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Play-offsAjinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Tokyo70%
×Draw19%
Ceres11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
2.15
Ceres
0.72

FC Tokyo creates 199% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.00
Ceres
0.70

allows per match

FC Tokyo
0.75
Ceres
3.30

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
89%
FC Tokyo or Ceres
81%
Draw or Ceres
30%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
46%
Ceres wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
88%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
63%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
36%
Ceres 1+ goals
51%
Ceres 2+ goals
16%
Ceres 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
86%
Ceres (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Ceres away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.00 + Ceres defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ceres attack 0.70 + FC Tokyo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
70%
level
19%
Ceres scores more
11%

FC Tokyo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Ceres

FC Tokyo beat Ceres 2-0 in AFC Champions League on January 28, 2020.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.