FC Tokyo 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

FC Tokyo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Avispa Fukuoka

9/23/2025

J1 League · Round 31Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

FC Tokyo43%

×Draw28%

Avispa Fukuoka29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TokyoExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

FC Tokyo

1.29

Avispa Fukuoka

1.02

FC Tokyo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 98 away

1.48

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

FC Tokyo

1.48

Avispa Fukuoka

0.88

allows per match

FC Tokyo

1.17

Avispa Fukuoka

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw

71%

FC Tokyo or Avispa Fukuoka

72%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

57%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

19%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

72%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

37%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

14%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

64%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

27%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

59%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Tokyo scores more

43%

level

28%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

29%

FC Tokyo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff