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FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
12/6/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 38Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

FC Tokyo47%
×Draw26%
Albirex Niigata27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.47
Albirex Niigata
1.06

FC Tokyo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 57 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.48
Albirex Niigata
0.95

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.17
Albirex Niigata
1.46

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
73%
FC Tokyo or Albirex Niigata
74%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
53%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
23%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
77%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
43%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
18%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
65%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
29%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
63%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Albirex Niigata attack 0.95 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
47%
level
26%
Albirex Niigata scores more
27%

FC Tokyo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 1–1 Albirex Niigata

FC Tokyo and Albirex Niigata drew 1-1 in J1 League on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.