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FC Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi Neve Sha'anan — State Cup 2019

FC Tirat HaCarmel
FC Tirat HaCarmel
FT
4 – 3
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
9/18/2023State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Tirat HaCarmel37%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tirat HaCarmel
1.79
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Tirat HaCarmel
2.25
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
2.33

allows per match

FC Tirat HaCarmel
1.50
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
1.33

finishing

FC Tirat HaCarmel+0.00on par
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tirat HaCarmel ↓

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Tirat HaCarmel or draw
58%
FC Tirat HaCarmel or Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
78%
Draw or Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
63%

Winning margin

FC Tirat HaCarmel wins by 2+
19%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Tirat HaCarmel 1+ goals
83%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 2+ goals
53%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 3+ goals
26%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2+ goals
57%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

FC Tirat HaCarmel (draw refunded)
47%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tirat HaCarmel at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tirat HaCarmel attack 2.25 + Maccabi Neve Sha'anan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan attack 2.33 + FC Tirat HaCarmel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tirat HaCarmel scores more
37%
level
22%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan scores more
42%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Neve Sha'anan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

FC Tirat HaCarmel beat Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 4-3 in State Cup on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium in Tirat Carmel.