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FC Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth — State Cup 2019

FC Tirat HaCarmel
FC Tirat HaCarmel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1/9/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundMunicipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Tirat HaCarmel28%
×Draw24%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tirat HaCarmel
1.29
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.75

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Tirat HaCarmel
2.25
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
2.00

allows per match

FC Tirat HaCarmel
1.50
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
0.33

finishing

FC Tirat HaCarmel+0.00on par
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tirat HaCarmel ↓

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Tirat HaCarmel or draw
52%
FC Tirat HaCarmel or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
76%
Draw or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
72%

Winning margin

FC Tirat HaCarmel wins by 2+
12%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC Tirat HaCarmel 1+ goals
72%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 2+ goals
37%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2+ goals
52%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Tirat HaCarmel (draw refunded)
37%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tirat HaCarmel at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tirat HaCarmel attack 2.25 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 2.00 + FC Tirat HaCarmel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Tirat HaCarmel scores more
28%
level
24%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth scores more
48%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maccabi Ahi Nazareth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth beat FC Tirat HaCarmel 1-0 in State Cup on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium in Tirat Carmel.