FC Thun 3–0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

3 – 0

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Heimberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Thun65%

×Draw18%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.17

FC Thun

2.46

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.17

FC Thun creates 110% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.75

creates per match

1.17

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

FC Thun

2.75

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.17

allows per match

FC Thun

1.17

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

83%

FC Thun or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

82%

Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

35%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

43%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

91%

FC Thun 2+ goals

70%

FC Thun 3+ goals

44%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

69%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

33%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

80%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.75 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.46

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.17 + FC Thun defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Thun scores more

65%

level

18%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

17%

FC Thun at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff