FC Thun 5–1 Servette FC: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Servette FC

R. Munsy 71', 50'

M. Castroman 56'

C. Kablan 32'

N. Havenaar 8'

A. Schalk 52'

7/22/2020

Super League · Round 33Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Thun48%

×Draw21%

Servette FC31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchServette FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.65

FC Thun

2.10

Servette FC

1.65

FC Thun creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

2.43

creates per match

1.78

1.52

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

FC Thun

2.43

Servette FC

1.78

allows per match

FC Thun

1.52

Servette FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par

Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

Servette FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

69%

FC Thun or Servette FC

79%

Draw or Servette FC

52%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

28%

Servette FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

88%

FC Thun 2+ goals

62%

FC Thun 3+ goals

35%

Servette FC 1+ goals

81%

Servette FC 2+ goals

49%

Servette FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

61%

Servette FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.43 + Servette FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.10

Servette FC attack 1.78 + FC Thun defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Thun scores more

48%

level

21%

Servette FC scores more

31%

FC Thun at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Munsy

FC Thun · F

8.7

Match Events

8'

N. Havenaar↳ M. Tosetti

32'

C. Kablan↳ M. Tosetti

41'

M. Mazzolini

50'

R. Munsy↳ M. Castroman

52'

S. Rouiller

52'

A. Schalk↳ G. Ondoua

56'

D. Salanović← H. Bandé

56'

M. Castroman↳ D. Salanović

59'

G. Karlen← M. Tosetti

59'

N. Hefti← C. Kablan

61'

R. Azevedo← A. Maccoppi

61'

M. Goncalves← M. Mazzolini

63'

A. Ajdini← A. Schalk

71'

R. Munsy↳ G. Karlen

74'

M. Breitenmoser← M. Castroman

75'

Saleh Chihadeh← R. Munsy

76'

S. Glarner

77'

N. Henchoz← N. Vouilloz

77'

L. Monteiro← M. Stevanović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCServette

Overview

48%Possession52%

20Total Shots15

11Corners2

8Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots15

10On Target6

4Off Target8

6Blocked1

14Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

402Total Passes431

293Accurate Passes321

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2