FC Thun 2–1 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC ST. Gallen

R. Munsy 64'

L. Bertone 51'

E. Demirović 82'

7/19/2020

Super League · Round 32Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun43%

×Draw21%

FC ST. Gallen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.87

FC Thun

2.06

FC ST. Gallen

1.87

FC Thun creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

2.14

creates per match

1.57

2.17

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

FC Thun

2.14

FC ST. Gallen

1.57

allows per match

FC Thun

2.17

FC ST. Gallen

1.99

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par

FC ST. Gallen+0.06on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

64%

FC Thun or FC ST. Gallen

79%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

57%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

24%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

87%

FC Thun 2+ goals

61%

FC Thun 3+ goals

34%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

85%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

56%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

55%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.99 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.06

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.57 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Thun scores more

43%

level

21%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

36%

FC Thun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Faivre

FC Thun · G

8.5

Match Events

51'

L. Bertone↳ D. Salanović

55'

M. Castroman← H. Ahmed

55'

H. Bandé← D. Salanović

58'

L. Bertone

64'

R. Munsy

65'

J. Guillemenot← C. Itten

65'

A. Bakayoko← André Ribeiro

72'

S. Rapp← R. Munsy

81'

C. Kablan

82'

E. Demirović↳ A. Bakayoko

84'

N. Hasler← G. Karlen

87'

S. Rapp

88'

A. Kräuchi← M. Muheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots29

1Corners16

18Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots29

3On Target10

1Off Target10

1Blocked9

3Inside Box14

2Outside Box15

Passing

37%Possession63%

262Total Passes421

147Accurate Passes321

56%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0