FC Thun 4–1 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

FC Luzern

F. Meichtry 58'

J. Bamert 36'

G. Montolio 34'

B. Labeau 18'

L. Villiger 90'

12/6/2025

Super League · Round 16Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun39%

×Draw22%

FC Luzern40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.90

FC Thun

1.87

FC Luzern

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

2.14

creates per match

1.62

2.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC Thun

2.14

FC Luzern

1.62

allows per match

FC Thun

2.17

FC Luzern

1.60

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par

FC Luzern+0.04on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

60%

FC Thun or FC Luzern

78%

Draw or FC Luzern

61%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

20%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

85%

FC Thun 2+ goals

56%

FC Thun 3+ goals

29%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

85%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

56%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

49%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.60 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC Luzern defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

FC Luzern attack 1.62 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Thun scores more

39%

level

22%

FC Luzern scores more

40%

FC Luzern at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

F. Fehr

FC Thun · D

9.9

Match Events

18'

33'

34'

36'

57'

58'

F. Meichtry↳ M. Burki

59'

S. Ottiger← A. Bajrami

59'

K. Spadanuda← S. Wyss

59'

L. Villiger← L. M. Silva Ferreira

65'

N. Rupp← V. Janjicic

70'

O. Kabwit← A. Grbic

71'

A. Balaruban← G. Montolio

71'

M. Gutbub← C. Ibayi

79'

L. Winkler← T. Owusu

80'

A. Ilic← F. Meichtry

80'

L. Stewart← B. Labeau

87'

Adam Ilic

90'

L. Villiger↳ A. Ciganiks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

25Total Shots16

3.34Expected Goals (xG)2.01

13Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots16

11On Target4

8Off Target9

6Blocked3

16Inside Box10

9Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

301Total Passes429

221Accurate Passes349

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1