FC Thun 0–5 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

2/28/2023

Schweizer Cup · Quarter-finalsStockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Thun13%

×Draw15%

BSC Young Boys73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.97

FC Thun

1.19

BSC Young Boys

2.97

BSC Young Boys creates 150% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.33

creates per match

3.77

2.17

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

FC Thun

1.33

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

FC Thun

2.17

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

27%

FC Thun or BSC Young Boys

85%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

87%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

5%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

70%

FC Thun 2+ goals

33%

FC Thun 3+ goals

12%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

95%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

79%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

15%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 1.33 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FC Thun scores more

13%

level

15%

BSC Young Boys scores more

73%

BSC Young Boys at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff