FC Thun 1–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

M. Spielmann 81'

R. Assalé 19' (pen)

2/10/2019

Super League · Round 20Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Thun37%

×Draw23%

BSC Young Boys39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.64

FC Thun

1.60

BSC Young Boys

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 142 away

1.84

creates per match

1.74

1.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

FC Thun

1.84

BSC Young Boys

1.74

allows per match

FC Thun

1.53

BSC Young Boys

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

61%

FC Thun or BSC Young Boys

77%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

63%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

18%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

80%

FC Thun 2+ goals

47%

FC Thun 3+ goals

22%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

49%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

49%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 1.84 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

BSC Young Boys attack 1.74 + FC Thun defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Thun scores more

37%

level

23%

BSC Young Boys scores more

39%

BSC Young Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Dennis Hediger

19'

Stefan Glarner

19'

R. AssaléPenalty

34'

Thorsten Schick

56'

Loris Benito

57'

D. Salanović← N. Hunziker

62'

Sandro Lauper

72'

Michel Aebischer

72'

Nelson Ferreira← M. Tosetti

76'

G. Gaudino← R. Assalé

81'

M. Spielmann↳ D. Salanović

85'

B. Stillhart← D. Hediger

86'

Nicolas Ngamaleu

87'

Djibril Sow

87'

U. Garcia← M. Ngamaleu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCBSC

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots12

6Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target3

6Off Target9

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2