FC Tallinn 1–5 Tartu Welco: Result & Stats

FC Tallinn

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Tartu Welco

7/5/2025

Esiliiga A · Round 18Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

FC Tallinn42%

×Draw22%

Tartu Welco36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TallinnExpected goals in this matchTartu Welco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.77

FC Tallinn

1.92

Tartu Welco

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 75 away

1.95

creates per match

1.73

1.81

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

FC Tallinn

1.95

Tartu Welco

1.73

allows per match

FC Tallinn

1.81

Tartu Welco

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par

Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

Tartu Welco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw

64%

FC Tallinn or Tartu Welco

78%

Draw or Tartu Welco

58%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+

23%

Tartu Welco wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals

85%

FC Tallinn 2+ goals

57%

FC Tallinn 3+ goals

30%

Tartu Welco 1+ goals

83%

Tartu Welco 2+ goals

53%

Tartu Welco 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)

54%

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.89 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + Tartu Welco defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tartu Welco attack 1.73 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tallinn scores more

42%

level

22%

Tartu Welco scores more

36%

FC Tallinn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff