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FC Tallinn vs Tallinna Kalev II — Esiliiga A 2026

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
5/4/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 9Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Tallinn51%
×Draw20%
Tallinna Kalev II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tallinn
2.24
Tallinna Kalev II
1.67

FC Tallinn creates 34% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 55 away

creates per match

FC Tallinn
1.95
Tallinna Kalev II
1.53

allows per match

FC Tallinn
1.81
Tallinna Kalev II
2.53

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw
71%
FC Tallinn or Tallinna Kalev II
80%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev II
49%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+
30%
Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals
89%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
65%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
38%
Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
81%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
50%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
64%
Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.24

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.53 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Tallinn scores more
51%
level
20%
Tallinna Kalev II scores more
29%

FC Tallinn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: FC Tallinn 1–1 Tallinna Kalev II

FC Tallinn and Tallinna Kalev II drew 1-1 in Esiliiga A on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.