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FC Tallinn vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Paide II
Paide II
5/26/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 12Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Tallinn45%
×Draw21%
Paide II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tallinn
2.17
Paide II
1.89

FC Tallinn creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

creates per match

FC Tallinn
1.95
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

FC Tallinn
1.81
Paide II
2.40

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw
66%
FC Tallinn or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
55%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+
26%
Paide II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals
89%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
64%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
36%
Paide II 1+ goals
85%
Paide II 2+ goals
56%
Paide II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
57%
Paide II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Paide II attack 1.97 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Tallinn scores more
45%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
34%

FC Tallinn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: FC Tallinn 8–1 Paide II

FC Tallinn beat Paide II 8-1 in Esiliiga A on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.