Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Tallinn vs Legion — Esiliiga A 2026

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legion
Legion
5/1/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 10Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Tallinn42%
×Draw21%
Legion37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tallinn
2.00
Legion
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC Tallinn
1.95
Legion
1.95

allows per match

FC Tallinn
1.81
Legion
2.05

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw
63%
FC Tallinn or Legion
79%
Draw or Legion
58%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+
23%
Legion wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals
86%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
59%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
32%
Legion 1+ goals
85%
Legion 2+ goals
56%
Legion 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
53%
Legion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

Legion away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + Legion defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.00

Legion attack 1.95 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tallinn scores more
42%
level
21%
Legion scores more
37%

FC Tallinn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: FC Tallinn 4–0 Legion

FC Tallinn beat Legion 4-0 in Esiliiga A on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.