FC Tallinn 5–0 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

FC Tallinn

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

6/4/2023

Esiliiga A · Round 16Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

FC Tallinn60%

×Draw19%

K-Järve JK Järve21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TallinnExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.40

FC Tallinn

2.45

K-Järve JK Järve

1.40

FC Tallinn creates 75% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

1.95

creates per match

0.98

1.81

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

FC Tallinn

1.95

K-Järve JK Järve

0.98

allows per match

FC Tallinn

1.81

K-Järve JK Järve

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw

79%

FC Tallinn or K-Järve JK Järve

81%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

40%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+

39%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals

91%

FC Tallinn 2+ goals

70%

FC Tallinn 3+ goals

44%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

75%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

41%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)

74%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.45

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.98 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Tallinn scores more

60%

level

19%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

21%

FC Tallinn at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff