Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Tallinn vs JK Tabasalu — Esiliiga A 2026

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
11/5/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 35Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Tallinn52%
×Draw20%
JK Tabasalu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tallinn
2.29
JK Tabasalu
1.63

FC Tallinn creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC Tallinn
1.95
JK Tabasalu
1.44

allows per match

FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
2.64

finishing

FC Tallinn+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tallinn ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Tallinn or draw
72%
FC Tallinn or JK Tabasalu
80%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
48%

Winning margin

FC Tallinn wins by 2+
32%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tallinn 1+ goals
90%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
66%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
40%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
80%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
48%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
66%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tallinn at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 64 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tallinn attack 1.95 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.29

JK Tabasalu attack 1.44 + FC Tallinn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Tallinn scores more
52%
level
20%
JK Tabasalu scores more
28%

FC Tallinn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tallinn vs JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat FC Tallinn 2-1 in Esiliiga A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.