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FC Talanta vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
1 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
5/27/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Talanta29%
×Draw25%
Western Stima46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
1.19
Western Stima
1.58

Western Stima creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.43
Western Stima
1.29

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.86
Western Stima
0.94

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
54%
FC Talanta or Western Stima
75%
Draw or Western Stima
71%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
12%
Western Stima wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
70%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
33%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
12%
Western Stima 1+ goals
79%
Western Stima 2+ goals
47%
Western Stima 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
38%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.43 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Western Stima attack 1.29 + FC Talanta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Talanta scores more
29%
level
25%
Western Stima scores more
46%

Western Stima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Talanta 1–1 Western Stima

FC Talanta and Western Stima drew 1-1 in Super League on May 27, 2018.