FC Talanta 1–2 Ushuru FC: Result & Stats

FC Talanta

FT

1 – 2

Ushuru FC

3/31/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Talanta26%

×Draw25%

Ushuru FC49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TalantaExpected goals in this matchUshuru FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.57

FC Talanta

1.06

Ushuru FC

1.57

Ushuru FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

1.87

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

FC Talanta

1.33

Ushuru FC

1.27

allows per match

FC Talanta

1.87

Ushuru FC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par

Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Ushuru FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw

51%

FC Talanta or Ushuru FC

75%

Draw or Ushuru FC

74%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+

10%

Ushuru FC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals

65%

FC Talanta 2+ goals

29%

FC Talanta 3+ goals

9%

Ushuru FC 1+ goals

79%

Ushuru FC 2+ goals

46%

Ushuru FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)

34%

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.33 + Ushuru FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ushuru FC attack 1.27 + FC Talanta defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Talanta scores more

26%

level

25%

Ushuru FC scores more

49%

Ushuru FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff