FC Talanta 3–2 Nakuru AllStars: Result & Stats

FC Talanta

FT

3 – 2

Nakuru AllStars

5/7/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Talanta45%

×Draw26%

Nakuru AllStars30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TalantaExpected goals in this matchNakuru AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

FC Talanta

1.50

Nakuru AllStars

1.17

FC Talanta creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.47

1.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Talanta

1.33

Nakuru AllStars

0.47

allows per match

FC Talanta

1.87

Nakuru AllStars

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Nakuru AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw

70%

FC Talanta or Nakuru AllStars

74%

Draw or Nakuru AllStars

55%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+

22%

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals

78%

FC Talanta 2+ goals

44%

FC Talanta 3+ goals

19%

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

69%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

33%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)

60%

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.33 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.47 + FC Talanta defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Talanta scores more

45%

level

26%

Nakuru AllStars scores more

30%

FC Talanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff