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FC Talanta vs Nairobi City Stars — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
1 – 3
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
2/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Talanta36%
×Draw27%
Nairobi City Stars38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
1.25
Nairobi City Stars
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.22
Nairobi City Stars
0.91

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.67
Nairobi City Stars
1.27

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
62%
FC Talanta or Nairobi City Stars
73%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
64%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
15%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
71%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
36%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
13%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
72%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
37%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
49%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.91 + FC Talanta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Talanta scores more
36%
level
27%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
38%

Nairobi City Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Talanta vs Nairobi City Stars

Nairobi City Stars beat FC Talanta 3-1 in Super League on February 18, 2018.