FC Talanta 0–0 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

FC Talanta

FT

0 – 0

Kisumu All Stars

3/11/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Talanta39%

×Draw25%

Kisumu All Stars36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TalantaExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.39

FC Talanta

1.44

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

1.38

creates per match

0.89

1.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Talanta

1.38

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

allows per match

FC Talanta

1.88

Kisumu All Stars

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw

64%

FC Talanta or Kisumu All Stars

75%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

61%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+

18%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals

76%

FC Talanta 2+ goals

42%

FC Talanta 3+ goals

18%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

75%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

40%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)

52%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.38 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + FC Talanta defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Talanta scores more

39%

level

25%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

36%

FC Talanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff