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FC Talanta vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
3 – 2
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
9/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Talanta35%
×Draw25%
Kibera Black Stars39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
1.34
Kibera Black Stars
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.38
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.88
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
61%
FC Talanta or Kibera Black Stars
75%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
65%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
16%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
74%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
39%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
15%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
76%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
41%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
48%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.38 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + FC Talanta defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Talanta scores more
35%
level
25%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
39%

Kibera Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Talanta vs Kibera Black Stars

FC Talanta beat Kibera Black Stars 3-2 in Super League on September 5, 2018.