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FC Talanta vs Isibania — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
2 – 1
Isibania
Isibania
8/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Talanta50%
×Draw24%
Isibania26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
1.69
Isibania
1.15

FC Talanta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.43
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.86
Isibania
1.94

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
74%
FC Talanta or Isibania
76%
Draw or Isibania
50%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
27%
Isibania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
82%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
50%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
24%
Isibania 1+ goals
68%
Isibania 2+ goals
32%
Isibania 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
66%
Isibania (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.43 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Isibania attack 0.44 + FC Talanta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Talanta scores more
50%
level
24%
Isibania scores more
26%

FC Talanta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Talanta 2–1 Isibania

FC Talanta beat Isibania 2-1 in Super League on August 25, 2018.