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FC Talanta vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
1 – 0
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
3/2/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Talanta41%
×Draw26%
Coast Stima33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
1.44
Coast Stima
1.27

FC Talanta creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.43
Coast Stima
0.69

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.86
Coast Stima
1.44

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
67%
FC Talanta or Coast Stima
74%
Draw or Coast Stima
59%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
20%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
76%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
42%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
18%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
72%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
36%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
55%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.43 + Coast Stima defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Coast Stima attack 0.69 + FC Talanta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Talanta scores more
41%
level
26%
Coast Stima scores more
33%

FC Talanta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Talanta 1–0 Coast Stima

FC Talanta beat Coast Stima 1-0 in Super League on March 2, 2018.