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FC Stăuceni vs Speranis Nisporeni — Super Liga 2026

FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
5/17/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundComplexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Stăuceni44%
×Draw26%
Speranis Nisporeni29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Stăuceni
1.42
Speranis Nisporeni
1.10

FC Stăuceni creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Stăuceni
1.09
Speranis Nisporeni
0.75

allows per match

FC Stăuceni
1.45
Speranis Nisporeni
1.75

finishing

FC Stăuceni+0.00on par
Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Stăuceni ↓

Speranis Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Stăuceni or draw
71%
FC Stăuceni or Speranis Nisporeni
74%
Draw or Speranis Nisporeni
56%

Winning margin

FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
21%
Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
76%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
41%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
17%
Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
67%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
30%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
60%
Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Stăuceni at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Speranis Nisporeni away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Stăuceni attack 1.09 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Speranis Nisporeni attack 0.75 + FC Stăuceni defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Stăuceni scores more
44%
level
26%
Speranis Nisporeni scores more
29%

FC Stăuceni at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Stăuceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FC Stăuceni 0–1 Speranis Nisporeni

Speranis Nisporeni beat FC Stăuceni 1-0 in Super Liga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni in Stăuceni.