FC Stăuceni 1–1 Saxan: Result & Stats | Super Liga

FC Stăuceni

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Saxan

D. Dosca 24'

B. Musteata 63'

4/25/2025

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 7Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Stăuceni28%

×Draw26%

Saxan46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC StăuceniExpected goals in this matchSaxan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.49

FC Stăuceni

1.11

Saxan

1.49

Saxan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.09

creates per match

1.53

1.45

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

FC Stăuceni

1.09

Saxan

1.53

allows per match

FC Stăuceni

1.45

Saxan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Stăuceni+0.00on par

Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Stăuceni ↓

Saxan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Stăuceni or draw

54%

FC Stăuceni or Saxan

74%

Draw or Saxan

72%

Winning margin

FC Stăuceni wins by 2+

11%

Saxan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Stăuceni 1+ goals

67%

FC Stăuceni 2+ goals

30%

FC Stăuceni 3+ goals

10%

Saxan 1+ goals

77%

Saxan 2+ goals

44%

Saxan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)

38%

Saxan (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Stăuceni at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Stăuceni attack 1.09 + Saxan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Saxan attack 1.53 + FC Stăuceni defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Stăuceni scores more

28%

level

26%

Saxan scores more

46%

Saxan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Dosca

63'

B. Musteata

FC

Saxan

Manager: I. Țîgîrlaș

Manager: E. Molovata