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FC Stăuceni vs Real Succes — Cupa 2020

FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
FT
1 – 3
Real Succes
Real Succes
8/24/2021CupaCupa · 1st RoundComplexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Stăuceni30%
×Draw21%
Real Succes49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Stăuceni
1.67
Real Succes
2.17

Real Succes creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Stăuceni
1.33
Real Succes
1.67

allows per match

FC Stăuceni
2.67
Real Succes
2.00

finishing

FC Stăuceni+0.00on par
Real Succes+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Stăuceni ↓

Real Succes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC Stăuceni or draw
51%
FC Stăuceni or Real Succes
79%
Draw or Real Succes
70%

Winning margin

FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
14%
Real Succes wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
81%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
50%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
23%
Real Succes 1+ goals
89%
Real Succes 2+ goals
64%
Real Succes 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
38%
Real Succes (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Stăuceni at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Real Succes away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Stăuceni attack 1.33 + Real Succes defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Succes attack 1.67 + FC Stăuceni defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Stăuceni scores more
30%
level
21%
Real Succes scores more
49%

Real Succes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Succes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Stăuceni vs Real Succes

Real Succes beat FC Stăuceni 3-1 in Cupa on August 24, 2021.

The match was played at Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni in Stăuceni.