Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Stăuceni vs Petrocub — Cupa 2020

FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Petrocub
Petrocubadvanced
4/3/2024CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsComplexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Stăuceni29%
×Draw22%
Petrocub49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Stăuceni
1.48
Petrocub
1.96

Petrocub creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Stăuceni
1.33
Petrocub
1.25

allows per match

FC Stăuceni
2.67
Petrocub
1.63

finishing

FC Stăuceni+0.00on par
Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Stăuceni ↓

Petrocub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Stăuceni or draw
51%
FC Stăuceni or Petrocub
78%
Draw or Petrocub
71%

Winning margin

FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
13%
Petrocub wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
77%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
43%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
19%
Petrocub 1+ goals
86%
Petrocub 2+ goals
58%
Petrocub 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
38%
Petrocub (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Stăuceni at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Stăuceni attack 1.33 + Petrocub defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Petrocub attack 1.25 + FC Stăuceni defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Stăuceni scores more
29%
level
22%
Petrocub scores more
49%

Petrocub at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: FC Stăuceni 1–4 Petrocub

Petrocub beat FC Stăuceni 4-1 in Cupa on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni in Stăuceni.