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FC St. Pauli vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
D. Kyereh 50'
L. Paqarada 22'
R. Benatelli 18'
O. Marmoush 4'
4/17/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC St. Pauli54%
×Draw24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.75
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.04

FC St. Pauli creates 68% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.72
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.04

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
1.04
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.79

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
78%
FC St. Pauli or FC Wurzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
46%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
83%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
52%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
65%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
28%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
71%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.72 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.04 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
54%
level
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
22%

FC St. Pauli at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
L. PaqaradaFC St. PauliFC St. Pauli · D
9.5

Match Events

4'
O. Marmoush↳ F. Becker
18'
R. Benatelli
22'
L. Paqarada↳ F. Becker
46'
D. Baumann← M. Pieringer
46'
M. Lotrič← M. Hasek
46'
R. van La Parra← D. Kopacz
50'
D. Kyereh↳ L. Paqarada
56'
C. Viet← R. Zalazar
56'
L. Daschner← O. Marmoush
56'
T. Reginiussen← J. Lawrence
59'
Maximilian Dittgen
63'
V. Nikolov← R. Munsy
72'
J. Wieckhoff← F. Becker
77'
S. Makienok← D. Kyereh
82'
A. Feick← F. Ronstadt

Possession

64%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots2
7Corners0
9Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots2
6On Target0
6Off Target1
4Blocked1
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box0
Passing
64%Possession36%
608Total Passes328
513Accurate Passes233
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli 4–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC St. Pauli beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 17, 2021.

Goals: O. Marmoush (4'), R. Benatelli (18'), L. Paqarada (22'), D. Kyereh (50').

FC St. Pauli controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 2.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.