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FC St. Pauli vs FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslautern
1/20/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FC St. Pauli51%
×Draw24%
FC Kaiserslautern25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.71
FC Kaiserslautern
1.13

FC St. Pauli creates 51% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 69 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.73
FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
1.03
FC Kaiserslautern
1.68

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
75%
FC St. Pauli or FC Kaiserslautern
76%
Draw or FC Kaiserslautern
49%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
27%
FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
82%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
51%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
24%
FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
68%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
31%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
67%
FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.73 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
51%
level
24%
FC Kaiserslautern scores more
25%

FC St. Pauli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli 2–0 FC Kaiserslautern

FC St. Pauli beat FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.