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FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lausanne
Lausanne
3/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC ST. Gallen51%
×Draw23%
Lausanne26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.81
Lausanne
1.23

FC ST. Gallen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Lausanne
1.09

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.38
Lausanne
1.74

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
74%
FC ST. Gallen or Lausanne
77%
Draw or Lausanne
49%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
28%
Lausanne wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
84%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
54%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
27%
Lausanne 1+ goals
71%
Lausanne 2+ goals
35%
Lausanne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
66%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.38 · 146 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.89 + Lausanne defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lausanne attack 1.09 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
51%
level
23%
Lausanne scores more
26%

FC ST. Gallen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne

Lausanne beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 in Super League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.