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FC ST. Gallen vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
10/24/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC ST. Gallen31%
×Draw23%
Fiorentina46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.49
Fiorentina
1.84

Fiorentina creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.83
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.83
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
54%
FC ST. Gallen or Fiorentina
77%
Draw or Fiorentina
69%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
15%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
77%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
44%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
19%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
84%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
55%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
41%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.83 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
31%
level
23%
Fiorentina scores more
46%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs Fiorentina

Fiorentina beat FC ST. Gallen 4-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.