FC ST. Gallen 1–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC ST. Gallen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Basel 1893

A. Vallci 38'

A. Kade 85'

12/8/2024

Super League · Round 17kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC ST. Gallen51%

×Draw22%

FC Basel 189328%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ST. GallenExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.45

FC ST. Gallen

2.02

FC Basel 1893

1.45

FC ST. Gallen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.20

creates per match

1.58

1.32

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen

2.20

FC Basel 1893

1.58

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.32

FC Basel 1893

1.84

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.20scores less

FC Basel 1893-0.08on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw

72%

FC ST. Gallen or FC Basel 1893

78%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

49%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

29%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

87%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

60%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

33%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

77%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

42%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

65%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.32 · 15 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.84 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.20 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.58 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more

51%

level

22%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

28%

FC ST. Gallen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Vallci

FC ST. Gallen · D

8.0

Match Events

17'

Dominik Schmid

38'

A. Vallci↳ M. Cisse

46'

M. Cissé← D. Schmid

46'

B. Traoré← M. Šotiček

55'

Leon Avdullahu

61'

C. Akolo← M. Cisse

61'

B. Toma← C. Konietzke

61'

Jordi Quintillà← L. Görtler

62'

Mihailo Stevanović

62'

A. Ajeti← Kevin Carlos

74'

Benie Traore

74'

Benie TraoreCard upgrade

79'

F. van Breemen← J. Adjetey

79'

B. Fink← L. Leroy

83'

F. Mambimbi← C. Witzig

85'

A. Kade↳ X. Shaqiri

87'

Jordi Quintillà

88'

Víctor Ruiz← K. Csoboth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots13

0.78Expected Goals (xG)0.77

5Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target5

6Off Target8

4Blocked0

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

356Total Passes520

276Accurate Passes453

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1