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FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen — Super League 2025

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
N. Vouilloz 88'
N. Scherrer 89'
C. Boukhalfa 78'
A. Balde 51'
5/14/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Group - 37St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Basel 189349%
×Draw22%
FC ST. Gallen29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.92
FC ST. Gallen
1.42

FC Basel 1893 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.89
FC ST. Gallen
1.61

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.22
FC ST. Gallen
1.95

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.06on par
FC ST. Gallen+0.49scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
71%
FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen
78%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
51%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
28%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
85%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
57%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
30%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
76%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
41%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
63%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.89 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.61 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
49%
level
22%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
29%

FC Basel 1893 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
N. ScherrerFC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
Bénie Traoré
10'
Tom Gaal
13'
Dominik SchmidPenalty cancelled
13'
Aliou Balde
39'
Nicolas Vouilloz
46'
L. Daschner← T. Gaal
47'
Leo Leroy
50'
Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel
51'
A. Balde
57'
K. Koindredi← X. Shaqiri
57'
A. Ajeti← G. Koloto
59'
Dominik Schmid
61'
D. Besio← A. Vogt
67'
I. Salah← L. Leroy
75'
B. Fazliji← L. Gortler
78'
C. Boukhalfa↳ M. Stevanovic
81'
K. Ruegg← K. Tsunemoto
81'
A. Rexhaj← J. Duranville
83'
J. Quintilla← C. Boukhalfa
83'
N. Scherrer← C. Konietzke
87'
Betim Fazliji
88'
N. Vouilloz↳ K. Koindredi
89'
N. Scherrer
90+4'
Chima Okoroji

Possession

61%FC

Shots

11FC

Pass accuracy

55%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots21
1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.25
10Corners8
12Fouls23
Shots
11Total Shots21
2On Target6
5Off Target9
4Blocked6
8Inside Box14
3Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
403Total Passes264
330Accurate Passes180
82%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23
Discipline
12Fouls23
4Yellow Cards5
1Offsides3

Super League: FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC ST. Gallen

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 in Super League on May 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Balde (51'), C. Boukhalfa (78'), N. Vouilloz (88'), N. Scherrer (89').

FC Basel 1893 controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 21.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.