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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
7/22/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC ST. Gallen50%
×Draw22%
FC Basel 189328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.89
FC Basel 1893
1.37

FC ST. Gallen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
FC Basel 1893
1.46

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
FC Basel 1893
1.47

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
72%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Basel 1893
78%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
50%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
28%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
85%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
56%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
29%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
75%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
40%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
64%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
50%
level
22%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
28%

FC ST. Gallen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 in Super League on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.