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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 — Schweizer Cup 2019

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893advanced
3/1/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Quarter-finalsKybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC ST. Gallen22%
×Draw18%
FC Basel 189360%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.67
FC Basel 1893
2.78

FC Basel 1893 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.33
FC Basel 1893
3.89

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.67
FC Basel 1893
1.00

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
40%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Basel 1893
82%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
78%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
10%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
81%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
50%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
23%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
94%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
76%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
27%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.33 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
22%
level
18%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
60%

FC Basel 1893 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893

FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 1-1 in Schweizer Cup on March 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.