Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
J. Guillemenot 65'
K. Duah 20'
L. Millar 67'
L. Stergiou 29' (OG)
4/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC ST. Gallen50%
×Draw22%
FC Basel 189328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.97
FC Basel 1893
1.41

FC ST. Gallen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.32
FC Basel 1893
1.74

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.20scores less
FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
72%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Basel 1893
78%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
50%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
29%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
86%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
58%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
31%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
76%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
41%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
65%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.32 · 15 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.20 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
50%
level
22%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
28%

FC ST. Gallen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
L. GörtlerFC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen · M
8.6

Match Events

20'
K. Duah↳ L. Görtler
29'
L. StergiouOwn goal
46'
B. Toma← K. Duah
49'
Matej Maglica
60'
Euclides Cabral
60'
Taulant Xhaka
61'
Valentin Stocker
61'
D. Males← V. Stocker
65'
J. Guillemenot↳ L. Görtler
67'
L. Millar↳ W. Burger
70'
Michael Lang
74'
F. Chalov← S.Esposito
75'
S. Pavlović← N. Djiga
76'
Victor Ruiz
76'
F. Schubert← J. Guillemenot
76'
B. Fazliji← Euclides Cabral
86'
A. Besio← J. von Moos
90+3'
N. Katterbach← L. Millar

Possession

53%FC

Shots

19FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
53%Possession47%
19Total Shots15
6Corners8
15Fouls9
Shots
19Total Shots15
8On Target7
7Off Target5
4Blocked3
15Inside Box11
4Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
391Total Passes344
282Accurate Passes241
72%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3

Super League: FC ST. Gallen 2–2 FC Basel 1893

FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 2-2 in Super League on April 10, 2022.

Goals: K. Duah (20'), L. Stergiou (29' o.g.), J. Guillemenot (65'), L. Millar (67').

FC ST. Gallen controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.