FC ST. Gallen 0–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC ST. Gallen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

10/6/2019

Super League · Round 10Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC ST. Gallen49%

×Draw22%

FC Basel 189329%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ST. GallenExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.43

FC ST. Gallen

1.94

FC Basel 1893

1.43

FC ST. Gallen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

2.14

creates per match

1.50

1.36

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen

2.14

FC Basel 1893

1.50

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.36

FC Basel 1893

1.74

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.20scores less

FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw

71%

FC ST. Gallen or FC Basel 1893

78%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

51%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

28%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

86%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

58%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

30%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

76%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

42%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

63%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.14 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more

49%

level

22%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

29%

FC ST. Gallen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff