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FC Sochi vs Surkhon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
CANC
14:00
Surkhon
Surkhon
2/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Sochi42%
×Draw24%
Surkhon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.67
Surkhon
1.48

FC Sochi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
2.15
Surkhon
1.20

allows per match

FC Sochi
1.75
Surkhon
1.20

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
66%
FC Sochi or Surkhon
76%
Draw or Surkhon
58%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
22%
Surkhon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
50%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
23%
Surkhon 1+ goals
77%
Surkhon 2+ goals
43%
Surkhon 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
55%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Surkhon away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.15 + Surkhon defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Surkhon attack 1.20 + FC Sochi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Sochi scores more
42%
level
24%
Surkhon scores more
34%

FC Sochi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Sochi host Surkhon

February 9, 2026: FC Sochi take on Surkhon in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.