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FC Sochi vs Sloga Doboj — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
1/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Sochi56%
×Draw19%
Sloga Doboj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
2.41
Sloga Doboj
1.54

FC Sochi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
2.15
Sloga Doboj
1.33

allows per match

FC Sochi
1.75
Sloga Doboj
2.67

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
76%
FC Sochi or Sloga Doboj
81%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
44%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
36%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
91%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
69%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
43%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
79%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
45%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
70%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.15 + Sloga Doboj defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Sloga Doboj attack 1.33 + FC Sochi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Sochi scores more
56%
level
19%
Sloga Doboj scores more
24%

FC Sochi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FC
Sloga
Robert Moreno
Manager: Robert Moreno
Marko Maksimovic
Manager: Marko Maksimovic

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Sloga Doboj

FC Sochi and Sloga Doboj drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2026.