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FC Sochi vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin
Rubin
4/6/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Sochi47%
×Draw25%
Rubin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.54
Rubin
1.13

FC Sochi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.69
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

FC Sochi
1.24
Rubin
1.39

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
72%
FC Sochi or Rubin
75%
Draw or Rubin
53%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
24%
Rubin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
79%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
45%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
20%
Rubin 1+ goals
68%
Rubin 2+ goals
31%
Rubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
63%
Rubin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.69 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rubin attack 1.02 + FC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Sochi scores more
47%
level
25%
Rubin scores more
28%

FC Sochi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Rubin

Rubin beat FC Sochi 1-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi.