FC Sochi 5–0 Chayka: Result & Stats | First League

FC Sochi

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chayka

K. Kravtsov 84'

R. Magal 82'

P. Meleshin 79'

M. Kramarič 37'

V. Pisarskiy 6'

10/6/2024

First League · Round 13Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi56%

×Draw24%

Chayka20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.90

FC Sochi

1.71

Chayka

0.90

FC Sochi creates 90% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

1.84

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.84

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

FC Sochi

0.86

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

80%

FC Sochi or Chayka

76%

Draw or Chayka

44%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

31%

Chayka wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

82%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

51%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

24%

Chayka 1+ goals

59%

Chayka 2+ goals

23%

Chayka 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

74%

Chayka (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chayka attack 0.94 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Sochi scores more

56%

level

24%

Chayka scores more

20%

FC Sochi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

25'

37'

40'

41'

46'

46'

K. Ibragimov← A. Nesterov

46'

D. Chernyakov← E. Zarypbekov

52'

Kirill Suslov

62'

V. Litvinov← R. Bart

70'

P. Meleshin← V. Pisarskiy

70'

A. Makarov← I. Saavedra

75'

O. Kozachenko← M. Bammatgereev

75'

O. Nikolaev← D. Pelikh

75'

A. Ivashin← M. Uzhgin

79'

80'

82'

84'

Statistics

FCChayka

Discipline

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0