FC Slutsk 1–0 Smolevichi-Sti: Result & Stats

FC Slutsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Smolevichi-Sti

Y. Schikavko 51'

5/4/2018

Premier League · Round 6Stadyen Haradski (Slutsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FC Slutsk47%

×Draw27%

Smolevichi-Sti27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SlutskExpected goals in this matchSmolevichi-Sti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.01

FC Slutsk

1.43

Smolevichi-Sti

1.01

FC Slutsk creates 42% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 28 away

1.11

creates per match

0.61

1.42

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FC Slutsk

1.11

Smolevichi-Sti

0.61

allows per match

FC Slutsk

1.42

Smolevichi-Sti

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Smolevichi-Sti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw

73%

FC Slutsk or Smolevichi-Sti

73%

Draw or Smolevichi-Sti

53%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

23%

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

76%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

42%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

17%

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

64%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

27%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

64%

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.11 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Smolevichi-Sti attack 0.61 + FC Slutsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Slutsk scores more

47%

level

27%

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

27%

FC Slutsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Lutsevich← E. Potapov

51'

Y. Schikavko

58'

M. Shilo← A. Fedyanin

70'

R. Burets← O. Kaplienko

71'

V. Trubila← V. Kibuk

74'

A. Yatskevich← M. Khotov

86'

Y. Elizarenko← T. Musa

FC

Smolevichi-Sti

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Pavlov

71'▲V. Trubila←▼V. Kibuk

74'▲A. Yatskevich←▼M. Khotov

86'▲Y. Elizarenko←▼T. Musa

FC Slutsk substitutes

TrubilaYatskevichElizarenkoSorokoYasinskiAuyeBylinkin

Manager: A. Brazevich

46'▲T. Lutsevich←▼E. Potapov

58'▲M. Shilo←▼A. Fedyanin

70'▲R. Burets←▼O. Kaplienko

Smolevichi-Sti substitutes

LutsevichShiloBuretsVaskovChikidaOkhremchukLukhtanov