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FC Slutsk vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
11/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Slutsk27%
×Draw25%
Ruh Brest47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Slutsk
1.13
Ruh Brest
1.57

Ruh Brest creates 39% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Slutsk
1.08
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

FC Slutsk
1.39
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw
53%
FC Slutsk or Ruh Brest
75%
Draw or Ruh Brest
73%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+
11%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals
68%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
31%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
11%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
79%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
46%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
37%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.08 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + FC Slutsk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Slutsk scores more
27%
level
25%
Ruh Brest scores more
47%

Ruh Brest at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Slutsk vs Ruh Brest

FC Slutsk beat Ruh Brest 3-0 in Premier League on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Slutsk.