FC Slutsk 1–0 Fc Luch Minsk: Result & Stats

FC Slutsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fc Luch Minsk

Y. Schikavko 68'

8/27/2018

Premier League · Round 19Stadyen Haradski (Slutsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Slutsk44%

×Draw28%

Fc Luch Minsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SlutskExpected goals in this matchFc Luch Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

FC Slutsk

1.31

Fc Luch Minsk

1.00

FC Slutsk creates 31% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 12 away

1.11

creates per match

0.58

1.42

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Slutsk

1.11

Fc Luch Minsk

0.58

allows per match

FC Slutsk

1.42

Fc Luch Minsk

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Fc Luch Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Fc Luch Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw

72%

FC Slutsk or Fc Luch Minsk

72%

Draw or Fc Luch Minsk

56%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

20%

Fc Luch Minsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

73%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

38%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

14%

Fc Luch Minsk 1+ goals

63%

Fc Luch Minsk 2+ goals

26%

Fc Luch Minsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

61%

Fc Luch Minsk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

Fc Luch Minsk away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.11 + Fc Luch Minsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fc Luch Minsk attack 0.58 + FC Slutsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Slutsk scores more

44%

level

28%

Fc Luch Minsk scores more

28%

FC Slutsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

V. Kibuk← M. Khotov

62'

D. Kaplunov← A. Bondarenko

68'

Y. Schikavko

69'

Y. Kozlov← R. Gribovski

75'

I. Yasinski← K. Auye

78'

D. Osipenko← K. Premudrov

89'

V. Zukh← I. Bobko

FC

Fc

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Pavlov

57'▲V. Kibuk←▼M. Khotov

75'▲I. Yasinski←▼K. Auye

89'▲V. Zukh←▼I. Bobko

FC Slutsk substitutes

KibukYasinskiZukhAbubakarBranovetsPrimusSchegrikovich

Manager: I. Bionchik

62'▲D. Kaplunov←▼A. Bondarenko

69'▲Y. Kozlov←▼R. Gribovski

78'▲D. Osipenko←▼K. Premudrov

Fc Luch Minsk substitutes

KaplunovKozlovOsipenkoBuloychikKatsSorokoSemenov