FC Sion 2–3 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Sion

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FC Basel 1893

G. Karlen 82', 77'

R. van Wolfswinkel 79'

P. Kasami 25'

T. Klose 15'

1/28/2021

Super League · Round 16Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

FC Sion35%

×Draw25%

FC Basel 189341%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SionExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.53

FC Sion

1.39

FC Basel 1893

1.53

FC Basel 1893 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 146 away

1.27

creates per match

1.64

1.42

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Sion

1.27

FC Basel 1893

1.64

allows per match

FC Sion

1.42

FC Basel 1893

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sion+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw

59%

FC Sion or FC Basel 1893

75%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

65%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+

16%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals

75%

FC Sion 2+ goals

40%

FC Sion 3+ goals

16%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

78%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

45%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)

46%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.42 · 127 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.51 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.27 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.64 + FC Sion defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Sion scores more

35%

level

25%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

41%

FC Basel 1893 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Karlen

FC Sion · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

T. Klose↳ V. Stocker

25'

P. Kasami↳ E. Zhegrova

44'

Léo Lacroix

46'

L. Clemenza← S. Doldur

46'

G. Serey Dié← Y. Wakatsuki

46'

J. Khasa← M. Tosetti

62'

N. Lovisa← L. Lacroix

74'

Serey Dié

76'

J. von Moos← E. Zhegrova

77'

G. Karlen↳ N. Lovisa

78'

G. Hoarau← C. Zock Abep

79'

R. van Wolfswinkel↳ J. von Moos

81'

Y. Marchand← L. Zuffi

82'

G. Karlen↳ J. Khasa

90'

Jan Bamert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots14

5Corners8

17Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target7

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

7Inside Box14

6Outside Box0

Passing

52%Possession48%

407Total Passes381

296Accurate Passes278

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2