FC Basel 1893 0–2 FC Sion: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Sion

4/26/2026

Super League · Championship Group - 34St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189342%

×Draw25%

FC Sion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.35

FC Basel 1893

1.54

FC Sion

1.35

FC Basel 1893 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.96

creates per match

1.66

1.04

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.96

FC Sion

1.66

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.04

FC Sion

1.11

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.40scores less

FC Sion+0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Sion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

67%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion

75%

Draw or FC Sion

58%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

21%

FC Sion wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

79%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

45%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

20%

FC Sion 1+ goals

74%

FC Sion 2+ goals

39%

FC Sion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

56%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.11 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.96 + FC Sion defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Sion attack 1.66 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

42%

level

25%

FC Sion scores more

33%

FC Basel 1893 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff