FC Serpa 3–0 Portel: Result & Stats

FC Serpa

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portel

8/31/2025

Taça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsCampo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Serpa68%

×Draw20%

Portel12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SerpaExpected goals in this matchPortel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.71

FC Serpa

2.02

Portel

0.71

FC Serpa creates 185% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.71

creates per match

0.00

1.43

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

FC Serpa

1.71

Portel

0.00

allows per match

FC Serpa

1.43

Portel

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Serpa+0.00on par

Portel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Serpa ↓

Portel →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Serpa or draw

88%

FC Serpa or Portel

80%

Draw or Portel

32%

Winning margin

FC Serpa wins by 2+

43%

Portel wins by 2+

Team goals

FC Serpa 1+ goals

87%

FC Serpa 2+ goals

60%

FC Serpa 3+ goals

33%

Portel 1+ goals

51%

Portel 2+ goals

16%

Portel 3+ goals

Draw no bet

FC Serpa (draw refunded)

85%

Portel (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Serpa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Portel away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Serpa attack 1.71 + Portel defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Portel attack 0.00 + FC Serpa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Serpa scores more

68%

level

20%

Portel scores more

12%

FC Serpa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Serpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff