FC Serpa 2–1 Gouveia: Result & Stats

FC Serpa

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gouveia

9/24/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Serpa45%

×Draw24%

Gouveia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SerpaExpected goals in this matchGouveia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.38

FC Serpa

1.69

Gouveia

1.38

FC Serpa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Serpa

1.71

Gouveia

1.33

allows per match

FC Serpa

1.43

Gouveia

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Serpa+0.00on par

Gouveia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Serpa ↓

Gouveia →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Serpa or draw

69%

FC Serpa or Gouveia

76%

Draw or Gouveia

55%

Winning margin

FC Serpa wins by 2+

23%

Gouveia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Serpa 1+ goals

82%

FC Serpa 2+ goals

50%

FC Serpa 3+ goals

24%

Gouveia 1+ goals

75%

Gouveia 2+ goals

40%

Gouveia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Serpa (draw refunded)

59%

Gouveia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Serpa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Gouveia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Serpa attack 1.71 + Gouveia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gouveia attack 1.33 + FC Serpa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Serpa scores more

45%

level

24%

Gouveia scores more

31%

FC Serpa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Serpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff